Don't Let Blue Wave Think We Will Win - VOTE

For about 6 years I ran elections in school districts across Michigan.  All those elections where for a school district millage.  The people who benefited the most, the parents of the children in school, were expected to bring the issue in on election day.  Any votes that we received from grandparents or other people that knew there was a benefit of a good education system were appreciated.

In advance of the election campaign, we would calculate how many votes we needed to win the election, based on averages from past elections.  Then, add 

10 to 20% additional votes to make sure we had enough.

Next step was to count the number of parents.  In many cases, there were enough votes in the parent head count to win the election.

Occasionally, we would lose.  Do you wonder why?  It was group think.  I learned early that we needed to make everyone think it was going to be close.  That would mean that every vote would count. 

Let me restate: Every vote from every individual in the district was needed.

Winning an election is an “If, Then” matrix statement.  We can win this election if the voters who support the cause get out and vote.  “If, Then” and only then.  To be confident about an election win will almost always be a disaster. 

The problem with being confident about an election win is wrapped in three things. 

First, there does need to be some confidence that it is possible to win.  Voters will not turn out if they think no matter their efforts, nothing will change.  So, the confidence level needs to be balanced.

Second, with a high confidence of win, a “We don’t have to fight so hard” attitude sets in.  In close elections, campaign workers, left to their own, will work hard to make up the possible short fall.  But, if there is a high confidence to win, they may take a day or two off.  Those days could be the days the worker would have reached a voter that may not have been reached.      

Third, when there is high confidence of an election win, on election day, it is not the group that fails, but the individual.  The thinking in the individual’s mind is a matter of priorities.  “I have dinner to get for the kids,” “It was a long day at work and I am tired,” or, “Oh, I forgot and don’t want to go out again to vote.”  All rationalized with a, “We are going to win anyway” thought.

Those elections that were lost, a new call for an election as soon as legally possible was supported.  In the next election, we would remind voters about the loss of the last election.  They were told that the election should have been won but not enough supporters made it to the polls. 

In all cases, the next election we kicked ass.

The 2016 election people didn’t show up to support the Democratic ticket.  We did win the vote count nationwide, no question.  But, in those precincts that were close in just a few states, Democrats didn’t show up to vote (or, when they did, they voted for Trump).  It is rumored that if just 2 more people in each precinct in the state of Michigan supported the Democrats, Michigan would not have been in Trump’s win column.

We are faced with one of the most historic elections in my lifetime.  Could be in the last century.  Under Trump, the nation is changing.  The Democrats and other people on the left are not happy, if not angry.  You would think it would be easy because people in the center and to the left of center make up most voters.  Just get them to the polls and we win.

That’s what we thought in 2016, of course we will win.  And then, at 3:00 am we found out we lost, lost big time.

Now there is talk of a Blue Wave.  This is the election that the Democrats take back the country – our country.  But, if we keep talking about the Blue Wave without conditions, we will lose again.  If we lose again, the right will wreak havoc on the America we know.  There is a chance we may not get it back. 

So be careful when you talk of a Blue Wave.  There is a Blue Wave, only and only IF WE VOTE.