How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

By Franklin Veaux

Updated July 13, 2020

Professional Writer

There are two problems with this question.

It neglects the law of large numbers; and

It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.

The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.

Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.

The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?

What about the people who survive?

For every one person who dies:

19 more require hospitalization.

18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.

10 will have permanent lung damage.

3 will have strokes.

2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.

2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:

3,282,000 people dead.

62,358,000 hospitalized.

59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.

32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.

9,846,000 people with strokes.

6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.

6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.

The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.

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Edited to add:

Wow, this answer has really blown up. Many people are asking about the sources, so here’s the basic rundown:

This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.)

The statistics I used in this answer were compiled from a number of different sources. I spent quite a bit of time writing the answer. Unfortunately, I don’t have my search history in front of me, so I’ll attempt to re-compile them.

Some of the sources include:

What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19

Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage.

Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients.

Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems.

What We Know About the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19

“Some of the data that we’re getting now from the China studies, one study that was just published in JAMA Neurology showed that 36.4 percent of patients had neurologic issues,” said Dr. Sheri Dewan, neurosurgeon at Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage Hospital in Winfield, Illinois. “One of the review articles that came out at the end of February discussed the possibility of virus traveling into the olfactory neurons, through the olfactory bulb, and into the brain.”

Lifelong Lung Damage: A Serious COVID-19 Complication?

“Holes in the lung likely refers to an entity that has been dubbed ‘post-COVID fibrosis,’ otherwise known as post-ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] fibrosis,” said Dr. Lori Shah, transplant pulmonologist at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center.

ARDS occurs when fluid builds up in tiny air sacs in the lungs called alveoli. This reduces oxygen in the bloodstream and deprives the organs of oxygen which can lead to organ failure.

Post-COVID fibrosis, according to Shah, is defined as lung damage that’s irreversible and can result in severe functional limitations from patients, such as cough, shortness of breath, and need for oxygen. […]

According to The Lancet, in a piece titled, “Pulmonary fibrosis secondary to COVID-19: A call to arms?,” the first series of hospitalized patients in Wuhan, China showed that 26 percent required intensive care and 61 percent of that subset developed ARDS.

What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19

Physicians report that patients hospitalized for Covid-19 are experiencing high rates of blood clots that can cause strokes, heart attacks, lung blockages, and other complications, Parshley reports.

For instance, physicians are seeing an uptick in strokes among young patients with Covid-19.

The blood clots also can travel to other organs, leading to ongoing health problems. For instance, pulmonary embolisms, which occur when the clots block circulation to the lungs, can cause ongoing "functional limitations," like fatigue, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and discomfort when performing physical activity, Parshley reports. Similarly, blood clots in the kidneys can cause renal failure, which can cause life-long complications.

Heart damage

Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage.

Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients.

Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems.

The numbers in this answer were made from extrapolations about percentages of COVID-19 long-term effects reported in a range of studies on Google Scholar, assuming a hypothetical 100% US infection rate and a 1% fatality rate. Of course, in reality, a high infection rate would cause the mortality and comorbidity rates to skyrocket, so if anything, these numbers are conservative.

Wear your damn masks, people.

Egalitarian Governments

Egalitarian Governments

An egalitarian country has a government that treats all people equal.

The examination of a country’s commitment to egalitarianism must go beyond a review of the documents of the country and go beyond the messages sent from the highest levels.  It must be examined at the street level.

This includes, yes, the police of the local community, but also the fire department, the tax assessments, the voting rights, personal protection of citizens, the relationship between the local government and all of its citizens, the courts of the local government, contact with financial institutions and more.

Every contact between two or more individuals, between individuals and government, individuals and businesses and membership to social groups and more in the locale must be examined to ensure that all at treated with equality and respect.

Examples of this is in the voting process and in the criminal justice system.

In the voting process, if one precinct has one machine for 400 people and another has a voting machine for 4,000 people, that is inequity.  If one precinct has a voting machine set within the precinct and another has combined precincts with a limited number of machines, that is inequity.

In criminal justice, if a black person receives a harsher punishment for the same crime as a white person, all things equal, that is inequity.

There does not need to be abstract mathematical models to bring light to the issue.  There does not need to be more beautifully written documents protesting inequity brought down to the local level. 

There needs to be action by the local governments that does not just sit around waiting for a problem to arise.  The local governments need to be in the community door to door informing people about the issues and that they must be solved.

While 100% equity may never be accomplished, anything less than 100% means that we are closer to the other end of the scale then we should be, closer to fascism. 

 

Say No to Goya

Recently, the CEO of Goya Foods announced he supported President Trump at a press conference. (1)

This caught my attention.

It also caught the attention of those that do not support Trump with calls for a boycott of all Goya products.

On Facebook, I posted “Say No to Goya.”

Some people posted in support, but a friend asked why we should boycott a company that is a good company?

I did not answer my friend on the post.  He is a good friend and we have done business together. (2)  

So, here is my answer.

I do not know if boycotts really work.

In the short run, I do not believe they do because companies just need to wait out the energy in the market for the boycott.

Most of the time, the companies do not have to wait long.

This is partly due to the energy running out for support of the boycott, as expected.  Also, because those that agree with the company’s position will, in some cases, increase their purchases. (3)

Only boycotts that manage to keep the attention on the issue alive over a long period of time achieve their goal. (4)

For me, it is more of a personal choice.

If a company does not take sides in the political arena, or at least one that I am aware of, the company’s political position is only marginally important to me. 

But it the company attempts to use their position and power to forward a political agenda or candidate and I become aware of it; I now am given a choice. 

The question I ask is, “Should I do business with a company that works against my political agenda, thereby making my goal harder to attain, or do I do business with someone that is at the very least neutral as far as politics are concerned?”

I do support every person, and I mean a living, talking, thinking, real honest to goodness person… not a company, the right to speak their minds and support whoever they want. I do not support free speech for a company. (5) (6)

My position on free speech also applies to me.  I have the right to free speech.    

When I exercise that right, it can be spoken, written or in action. 

In conclusion, I exercise my right of free speech by not doing business with a company that supports goals that are not aligned with mine.

The CEO of Goya Foods expressed a political position that is held by the corporation and is not in sync with my political position. (7)

Therefore, when I am making purchases for products that Goya makes, I will choose another product, or I will do without.

(1) The press conference was for another reason other than expressing support for the President, so I also do not think it was appropriate for the CEO of Goya Foods to express his support at the event.

(2) Besides being sensitive to my friend in public, Facebook is a bad place to express thoughts that take more than 4 words.

(3)  https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-boycotts-history-20180228-htmlstory.html

(4) https://www.ethicalconsumer.org/ethicalcampaigns/boycotts/history-successful-boycotts

(5) The term “free speech” here is used in a common usage of the word.  This is not be confused with the Constitutional meaning of “Free Speech” which prohibits the Government from restricting personal expression.

(6) Company here is used as an incorporated entity.  As a fabricated entity of law, they are not a person.

(7) According to Goods Unite Us, Goya Foods donate exclusively to the Republican Party.

Covid-19 Steps to Protect People

What the Federal, State and Local governments should do to protect people from the Covid-19 virus.

Wear Face masks

Social distance at least 6 feet

Stay away from crowed places

Test everyone, over and over

Isolate those that test positive

     Pay the wages for those isolated

     Pay the health insurance of those isolated

     House those that do not stay isolated

Contact trace using interviews and technology

Close establishments that do not protect their employees

Provide protective gear to all employees

     Interview about symptoms

     Mandatory periodic testing for all employees

Make establishments responsible to protect the public

     Limit capacity

    Provide for social distancing

    Mandatory masks for all customers

Close establishments that do not take the protective measures

These suggestions are a work in progress.

I Support Governor Whitmer (Michigan) in Fighting the Covid-19 Breakout

Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan,

I want you to know that I strongly support your actions to protect all of us from the covid-19 outbreak.

There will likely be a second and maybe even a third wave to this pandemic.  We can reduce the likelihood of a second and third wave by keeping in place your executive orders until we are past the apex and have medical measures in place that will quickly identify outbreaks.

This will be a long road to recovery for ourselves and our state, but with you on at the helm, I feel we are in good hands.

Don't Be Fooled In This Time of Crisis

In this time of crisis, we may become confused about what is happening and what caused it.  We may begin to believe the leaders when they blame it on someone else.

But, don’t be fooled.

It is not the Church that has failed us in this time of crisis, it is the church leaders.

It is not our Government Institutions that have failed us, it is the leaders of those institutions.

It is not the health care system, or the business systems that have failed us, it is the leaders.

We intended by our naive nature, that all of the systems and institutions were designed to work together and build a society that protected everyone.

But, the leaders have hijacked those systems for profit, power and fame.

They all took risks with our health and safety by gambling that something like this wouldn't happen. 

The leaders thought, well if it does happen, we the leaders would be protected.

To make profit, to gain power, to attain fame, they took risks with our health and safety by reducing to the smallest possible size the safety net that should be there.

Listen, the smaller the safety net, the less leaders need to spend on the net itself, which means more profit for them.

In balance, that means when people fall and need the safety net to catch them, they will more than likely fall to their death.

The leaders are willing to accept the loss if they can make the profit they want.

The leaders did this while collecting our taxes, demanding their over payment for sub-par goods and services and accepting the adulation of their blind and adoring supporters.

In this time of crisis, rethink everything you have been told by the leaders. 

In this time of crisis, don’t accept the blame placed far and wide to all others but not on them, the leaders.

And, for us, don’t do the same thing our leaders are doing, don’t blame someone else.

Accept responsibility and change the leaders.

Covid-19 Infection Rates for Southeast Michigan

Here is how the individual communities breakout on the number of confirmed cases with Covid-19.

Numbers from the reporting sites change daily.  They correct the past numbers.

First graph is number of confirmed cases.

Next, is the daily increase.

Finally, days to double.  An important number to watch.  The best case is to have the days to double increase everyday. 


Here are the graphs for Wayne County, not including Detroit.  The county has only been report since late March.

Here is the graph for the City of Detroit

Here is the graph for Oakland County.

Here are the graphs for Macomb County

Here are the graphs that combines all the data from above.

All sources are the individual counties or city own website.The data points will follow in a day or two.